Friday, February 22, 2008

Courtney's Post - Is Technological Growth Exponential?

Futurologist Ray Kurzweil gave a keynote at GDC this week. Did anyone who went see his speech? If his predictions are at all accurate and technological growth is indeed exponential (opinions?), we’ll soon need to start working on a version of GamerLog that’s implantable into our nervous systems!

http://www.gamedaily.com/articles/news/gdc-kurzweil-talks-of-the-future-and-gaming/?biz=1


1 comment:

Dmitriy Aristov said...

This is a great thought (The article, not implantation of GamerLog :)) and an interesting prediction. Unfortunately the exponential growth is evident in research but not its practical applicability. A good example is the struggle of the medical field in bringing the latest technology to common practice, let alone bringing it for an affordable cost. However, he is right about the fact that perhaps the gaming industry has the faster turn around time from concept to development largely due to its computer based origin, final product, and willingness to consume the final product.

Unfortunately its the implementation and affordability to the public that seems to be the problem. For example, most top of the line products, (I'm talking really top of the line, not what the magazines are advertising) are way too expensive for us and most will never get into production. Then there is this "doormat period" where products come out, fail, another product comes out, bombs, and finally somewhere down the line emerges a winner.

Finally, these growth predictions are based on the notion that all variables will grow and change as they do now and have done in the past. There seems to be too many unforseen variables that would affect that.